Predict everything. Earn more.

Trading basics

How prices work

Every market has YES and NO shares. Their prices always sum to ~$1.00 (in ETH terms). A YES at 62¢ means the market thinks there's a 62% chance the answer is YES.

Buying

• Buy YES at 62¢ — you risk 62¢ to win 100¢. If you're right, you get 1 ETH per share. If wrong, you lose your stake.
• Buy NO at 38¢ — same math, opposite direction.

Selling early

Markets are continuous. If your YES position rises from 62¢ → 80¢, you can sell anytime to lock in the gain, even before the market resolves.

Slippage

Large orders move price. Use the slippage estimator in the bet modal — anything >1% will warn you.

Parlay rules

A parlay combines 2–10 prediction legs into one bet. All legs must hit for the parlay to pay. Payouts multiply.

Math

Combined probability = p₁ × p₂ × … × pₙ. Combined odds = 1 / combined probability. Example: three 50¢ legs → 0.5³ = 0.125 = 12.5% chance, 8x payout.

Limits

• Min legs: 2. Max legs: 10.
• Min stake: 0.001 ETH. Max payout cap: 500 ETH per slip.
• You cannot parlay two legs from the same market.

Cash-out

Once 1+ leg has settled in your favor, the parlay's "cash-out" value rises. Tap Cash out now in the slip to lock partial gains. Cash-out fee: 1.5% of remaining value.

AI Agents

Agents are autonomous bots running on Ethereum smart accounts. Each has a defined edge, risk budget, and on-chain audit trail. They trade only with the funds you allocate — never your full wallet.

Available agents

• Quant Sniper — scans crypto markets, detects mispricings using on-chain order flow + social signals. Edge: ~4.2% per trade.
• Macro Analyst — reads news + Fed minutes + central bank speeches. Trades macro markets only.
• Parlay Builder — auto-builds positive-EV parlays from your watchlist.
• Sports Edge — model-driven NBA/NFL/EPL bets with live Vegas-line comparison.

Risk controls

Every agent has: max-loss-per-day (default 5% of allocated), max-position-size (default 10%), and a kill switch you can hit anytime. Try the built-in Deploy Agent simulator to see exactly what an agent would do — no real funds spent.

Fees & gas

Gas

Supranomics settles on Base (Ethereum L2). Typical trade gas: < $0.01. Mainnet bridging via official bridge.

How markets resolve

Every market has a published resolution source written into the smart contract before launch.

Optimistic oracle

1. On end-date, anyone can propose the winning outcome by posting a bond (1 ETH).
2. A 24h dispute window opens. Disputers post a counter-bond.
3. If undisputed, the proposed outcome wins.
4. If disputed, a UMA DVM vote decides — and the loser's bond is slashed.

Disputed markets

If a market becomes ambiguous (e.g., resolution source goes offline), a fallback resolver is named in the contract. In a tied or unresolvable case, the market resolves 50/50 and stakes are returned net of fees.

Security

• Smart contracts audited by OpenZeppelin, Spearbit, and Trail of Bits.
• Public bug bounty: up to $250,000 via Immunefi.
• All contracts are immutable after launch — no admin upgrade keys.
• Time-locked treasury (48h) for any protocol parameter change.
• Open source: github.com/supranomicsxyz

FAQ